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國內商品期貨多數上漲燃油、PTA漲幅領先

來源:安徽蚌埠網 作者:本站 發布時間:2019-03-25
國內商品期貨日盤收盤多數上揚,纖維板、燃油、PTA期貨及滬銀期貨漲幅居前,其中燃油期貨漲超2%,分析師指出,原油市場仍存較多的不確定因素,對燃料油價格的擾動也會加劇。 【延

國內商品期貨日盤收盤多數上揚,纖維板、燃油、PTA期貨及滬銀期貨漲幅居前,其中燃油期貨漲超2%,分析師指出,原油市場仍存較多的不確定因素,對燃料油價格的擾動也會加劇。
【延伸閱讀】
燃料油:關注1905與1909合約的正套機會
3月以來,燃料油表現稍遜于原油,需求端弱勢打壓了市場人氣。一般來說,國內燃料油期貨價格緊密跟隨原油價格走勢,考慮到美國國會積極推進NOPEC法案、伊朗制裁豁免期臨近結束以及特朗普所能容忍的油價水平不斷下降,后期油價上漲趨勢不會順暢。隨著燃料油基本面逐步改善,近月合約或將得到更多支撐,建議關注燃料油1905與1909合約正套機會。
新加坡和國內燃料油進入去庫存階段
根據新加坡海事及港務管理局數據,2月由于停靠在新加坡加油的船只數量下滑至近六個月低點,船用燃料油銷量較去年同期下降8.6%至378萬噸,為近33年來最低水平。2月亞太地區船燃需求表現不佳,一是2月天數較少,二是中國及部分亞洲地區處于農歷新年假期,三是全球航運市場低迷。3月下旬開始,船燃需求有望逐步恢復。從供給端看,由于東西方套利窗口關閉,從歐洲和中東運往新加坡套利船貨的經濟性變差,同時全球煉廠春季檢修使得燃料油產量大幅下滑,考慮到航運時間,預計4月流向新加坡的船貨量會進一步收緊,新加坡當地貿易商認為4月流入量會低于400萬噸。截至3月13日當周,新加坡殘渣燃料油庫存環比增加184.5萬桶至2217.9萬桶,為近四周高位。后期隨著關注焦點從需求端向供給端轉移,新加坡燃料油市場結構將持續改善,季節性庫存去化過程會加速,從而對近月合約形成較強支撐。
路透等部分資訊網站能夠追蹤全球主要港口燃料油船貨的進出港情況,提供的數據包括燃料油船貨的船型、載貨量、始發地、目的地、到港及離崗時間等。通過持續跟蹤,可以初步預判未來兩周內中國進口燃料油的數量。根據路透船期數據,3月中國燃料油進口量不到100萬噸,較上月下滑約20%,進口量已經連續兩個月錄得下降。后期隨著新加坡燃料油進入去庫存階段,從新加坡流入中國的船貨量也會收緊,同時中國推出的減稅降負政策會對船用燃油需求形成提振,未來保稅燃料油庫存將面臨去化壓力。
內盤1905與1909合約價差較新加坡背離程度大
國內保稅燃料油市場與新加坡市場聯動性比較好,但近期FU1905與1909合約價差較新加坡380cst掉期1904與1908合約價差的背離程度加大。目前,上期所燃料油主力合約1905與新加坡380cst掉期1904合約的價差在5美元/噸左右。與此同時,燃料油1905與1909合約價差較新加坡380cst掉期1904與1908合約價差低13美元/噸左右,FU1905與1909合約價差具有一定的上漲修復空間。從主力持倉來看,在大部分時間內空頭力量在FU1905合約上占據優勢,空頭的增減倉行為對燃料油價格影響明顯,近期燃料油1905與1909合約價差的弱勢很大程度上是受到了空頭主力的打壓。根據上期所庫存周報,截至3月15日保稅燃料油交割庫存小計183335噸,而當日前10大空頭主力的持倉量為48025手,因此空頭主力投機盤仍然較多。后期隨著交割月臨近,空頭主力會主導移倉換月,空頭打壓力量也會逐步由FU1905合約移至FU1909合約,進而帶動FU1905與1909合約價差擴大。
總之,原油市場仍存較多的不確定因素,對燃料油價格的擾動也會加劇。由于煉廠檢修導致燃料油供給收緊,同時需求端有恢復預期,新加坡和國內燃料油將步入去庫存階段,近月合約會得到支撐。當前,內盤FU1905與1909合約價差較新加坡背離程度大,后期有望出現向上修復行情,4月FU1905與1909合約價差將擴至100元/噸左右。返回期貨首頁,查看更多>>


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